Why Analysis Provides Little Value in Trading

BK Forex Trading Signals BK Club Forex Trading Education www.bkforex.com Boris' Weekly Trading Newsletter Traders First and Analysts Second Blood, Sweat & Pips - Here are our thoughts on Trading  Thoughts on Trading  Why Analysis Provides Little Value in Trading      When you are a trader you are effectively in the future prediction business and predicting the future in the forex market can be very tough business. Basically there are three elements that you need to get right. You need to understand the news. You need to properly anticipate the market's reaction to that news. You need to make sure that that there are no hidden forces that could undermine your analysis.   Let's break these three factors down. "News" as I define it is not simply the latest economic release or a wayward comment from a central banker, but it can also be the price of the underlying as well. For example last year when USD/JPY approached and finally broke the key 100.00 mark that was as much of a "news" event as any pronouncement from the BOJ. The market was so fixated on that number that once given it broke it burst like a dam. Although price itself does not become "news" often, it is a factor and should be part of any good analysis.   Properly anticipating the market's reaction becomes a lot easier the more significant the news event is. For example when Mario Draghi hinted that he was ready to go to negative rates the euro lost three big figures in 72 hours. Generally the rule of thumb in forex is -- the more direct the impact of the news event on interest rate policy -- the more persistent the price reaction will be.   However, sometimes the obvious trade is not the right one. For example, before the euro took a tumble on Draghi's comments it was remarkably resilient refusing to buckle despite the near recessionary conditions in much of the Eurozone and the threat of geopolitical conflict in Ukraine. Generally in such conditions the dollar gets the bid as investors flee the zone of combat. Instead, the euro rose against all reason. Why? Because of a hidden force that only a few market participants understood.   As part of its foreign policy US hit Russia with a series of sanctions that amounted to a financial blockade. That meant that Russian oligarchs that were looking to take their capital to a more secure location were locked out of the US assets and their money flowed directly into the euro. So instead of the greenback becoming a safe haven bid, the euro was the risk aversion choice.   Another example of an obvious trade that faces hidden risk is the Great Britain pound. The UK economy is booming. BoE needs to begin to tighten policy and UK should by all measures become the first G-7 economy to raise rates in over five years. So why is the pound falling? In one word -- Scotland. Scotland which represents about 10% of the UK economy wants to secede and is running a referendum on the matter on September 18th. If Scotland spins out from the United Kingdom it will wreak havoc with BoE monetary policy and all bets on rate hikes will be off.   As I said predicting the future is a tough business, which is why trading is much more a function of trade management rather than proper analysis. Once you begin to appreciate that fact, being right becomes a lot less important while being not wrong becomes crucial to your success.   Forex Weekly Techs Where Are The Trades? 06.02-06.06.2014      Sincerely,   Boris Schlossberg and Kathy Lien BKForex.com Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Forward this email This email was sent to forexhudi.euro@blogger.com by contact@bkforex.com |   Update Profile/Email Address | Instant removal with SafeUnsubscribe™ | Privacy Policy. BKForex Advisor | The Desks of Boris Schlossberg and Kathy Lien | NY | NY | 10280

How Do Stop Hunts Work in the Forex Market?

BK Forex Trading Signals BK Club Forex Trading Education www.bkforex.com Boris' Weekly Trading Newsletter Traders First and Analysts Second Blood, Sweat & Pips - Here are our thoughts on Trading  Thoughts on Trading  How Do Stop Hunts Work in the Forex Market?     For Memorial Day Weekend -- I thought this was worth another look. Reprint from October 2013   So today EUR/USD hit the 1.3700 mark in early New York trade and then immediately came off that level. During the London session when the euro was trading in the 1.3660s I put out a research note suggesting that this kind of scenario was highly probable. Yet I am hardly the Nostradamus of FX. I am simply aware of one of the most common occurrences in the currency market - the daily hunt for stops.   The forex market unlike the equity market is a dealer rather than a exchange based market. That means that the broker you deal with is not acting as an agent but as a counterparty. In short in the forex market the broker often takes the opposite side of your trade. Even in cases where the brokers act as pure agents they pass your order to the greater interbank market where the bigger dealers often assume the risk of holding the position against your order.   So let's imagine a scenario like this. A customer decides to sell one billion euros at 1.3660. A dealer decides that the customers assessment of the market is wrong and takes the opposite side of that position by buying the billion euros from the customer. Instead syndicating the risk across the interbank market by selling off chunks of that order to other banks, the dealer decides to inventory the whole position.   The euro now rises as the day proceeds and is within 10 pips of the 1.3700 level. The customer, being a typical trader knows that the yearly high for the euro is near the 1.3700 level so he places his stop there. The dealer knows the customer's stop and he decides to spend 20-30M of capital to move the market towards the 1.3700 figure and stop the customer out. Note, it is only AFTER the customer is stopped out that the profit on trade can be booked. Otherwise it simply floats in the market and may eventually go against the dealer.   This is a very simplistic illustration of what happens in a stop hunt and it doesn't account for any possible news event that could suddenly move prices lower or for any other market participant that may have a very strong financial interest in keeping prices below the 1.3700 level. Forex being a highly speculative market nothing is ever 100% certain. Dealers, like all traders sometime make mistakes or get run over by unexpected news. Nevertheless all things being equal this little drama plays itself out almost every day in the currency market and even more so when the levels hold monthly or yearly significance.   It is also the reason why currency movements often stall at the round number figures. As human beings we almost unconsciously strive for order and many traders will leave their stops at the round number figures such as 1.3700. Seasoned market participants of course know this and exploit this very common weakness to run stops.   Again, I want to conclude by emphasizing that this is an academic example of how stop hunts happen in the currency market and the reality is never that simple or easy. But if you understand the underlying dynamic you will be better prepared to manage your trades and avoid the stop hunts.   Forex Weekly TechnsWhere Are The Trades? 05.26-05.30.2014      Sincerely,   Boris Schlossberg and Kathy Lien BKForex.com Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Forward this email This email was sent to forexhudi.euro@blogger.com by contact@bkforex.com |   Update Profile/Email Address | Instant removal with SafeUnsubscribe™ | Privacy Policy. BKForex Advisor | The Desks of Boris Schlossberg and Kathy Lien | NY | NY | 10280

Google Adwords VCC - Adwords Virtual Credit Card For Sale

DLL Incorporation is providing working Google Adwords Vcc ( Virtual Credit Card ) on very affordable price.

 

It will work in new and old adwords accounts for any country billing, we can add on your behalf if you

 

do not know how to add vcc in an adwords account. We will successfully setup billing for your adwords account.

 

You can use this vcc in your multiple accounts , we are also providing 200 INR adwords promotional code for India.

 

if you add this vcc and Indian adwords 2000 INR promo code then total credit you will get 2500+2000=4500 INR.

 

You do not need to pay any thing to adwords . Price of vcc is 500 INR and we will give free 2000 INR adwords Coupon with this .

 

For buying this you can call us at +91-8586875020 / 9136075049 Skype id Speakmeme or visit www.choicedelhi.in

 

 

Sure Thing Trading

BK Forex Trading Signals BK Club Forex Trading Education www.bkforex.com Boris' Weekly Trading Newsletter Traders First and Analysts Second Blood, Sweat & Pips - Here are our thoughts on Trading  Thoughts on Trading  Sure Thing Trading       This week I am re-running a oldie but a goodie:   Does success in business require you to take outsized risk? Do you need to max out your credit cards, leverage your house and put your whole life in the hands of fate in order to achieve your dream? That's been the mythology built around American entrepreneurship, but in this week' s issue of the New Yorker, bestselling author Malcolm Galdwell dispels this mistaken notion by demonstrating how true entrepreneurial success is actually the result of assiduously removing risk from the equation.   Galdwell focuses on two every different personalities- Ted Turner, the hard drinking, carousing, Captain Courageous of America's Cup fame who made billions in media and John Paulson, the frugal (he still takes New York city bus to work), Queens born and raised hedge fund manager who made billions of dollars shorting sub-prime debt in 2007 and 2008.   At first glance Turner, appears to be the antithesis of a sober, cautious, risk averse businessman. With his outrageous antics, and instinct for showmanship the "Mouth from the South" is the poster child for the idea of a rebel entrepreneur - a man who bucked the system, risked everything and came out on top. Underneath it all however, Turner turns out to be one of the most conservative businessmen on the planet, never willing to pay a dime if he can get something for a nickel.   Galdwell tells the story of how Turner was able to buy the Atlanta Braves in the early 1970's. At that time Turner owned a small UHF station that broadcast Braves away games. The team was a money loser and the owners wanted to sell it for 10 Million dollars. Turner convinced them to take a 10 year payout at 1 million per year - but here is the kicker Turner was already paying the Braves $600,000 per year in broadcast fees, so effectively he bought the whole team for just $400,000 more per year allowing him to broadcast all 162 games of the season, receive substantial ad revenue in return and own the sports franchise outright to boot.   Paulson though diametrically opposite from Turner in personality shared the same careful mindset. In 2006 his research showed that the sub-prime debt instruments which were exploding at the time, could be vulnerable to a sell off. Paulson's key insight came from the realization that the housing market did not need to decline- it simply needed to level out in order to cause a steep slide in many of the subprime securities because most of the mortgages were financed not on the assumption that the owners would be able to service the debt, but on the notion that they would be able quickly refinance them as housing equity grew.   However, even armed with this knowledge Paulson did not immediately dive into the market. Instead he explored the landscape and was astounded to find out that the CDS market was charging only 0.5% to 1% premium per year to insure this essentially worthless debt. But the story gets better. The CDS settlement mechanics required Paulson to pay his premiums only once at the end of each year. That meant that he could park his money in short term Treasuries and collect interest on his capital while still holding his bearish bets. In short, his actual net cash outlay was only half the amount of premium paid which were miniscule to begin with.   To us as traders, the lessons of Galdwell's story are clear. Although we are traders, not investors and do not have the luxury nor the time to create the customized, highly asymmetric bets of Turner and Paulson, we can still learn from their actions. Success in trading like in all business rests not on the idea of taking risk, but on the notion of removing it as much as possible. To be sure, there are some risks that are unavoidable and you must be prepared to assume them if you want to trade, but many risks can be eliminated through careful selection and research. That why K and I spend countless hours trying to understand what can go wrong with our trades rather than focus on what can go right. In trading as in business if you take care of the downside, the upside will take care of itself.   Forex Weekly Techs Where Are The Trades? 05.19-5.24.2014        Sincerely,   Boris Schlossberg and Kathy Lien BKForex.com Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Forward this email This email was sent to forexhudi.euro@blogger.com by contact@bkforex.com |   Update Profile/Email Address | Instant removal with SafeUnsubscribe™ | Privacy Policy. BKForex Advisor | The Desks of Boris Schlossberg and Kathy Lien | NY | NY | 10280

Bing Voucher 400$ & 475$ Available -Speakmeme.com

DLL Incorporation is Selling bing voucher of 400$ & bing voucher of 475$ at very reasonable price .

 

These Vouches works in new account and old bing ad account . and Coupon will work wordwide in any country .

 

Facebook & Adwords Coupon , Adwords VCC also available for sale.

 

You can buy with perfectmoney,webmoney, neteller and netbanking.

 

More details call us +91-8586875020 / 9136075049 Skype speakmeme  email ceo@speakmeme.com

 

visit www.speakmeme.com

 

Non Hosted Google Adsense Approval

IF You have tired of seeking genuine and working Google Adsense Account for your website , do not lose

hope . we have real solution of Adsense approval for any country individual.

 

Adsense is online earning program by Google for website owners and publishers.You can monetize Your

blog, Website , Youtube Channel , Social Networking site, Classified website or information websites.

 

Its easy to Implement the adsense and easy to make money if you have good traffic at your website.

 

WE ARE PROVIDING 100% LEGIT AND FUNCTIONING ADSENSE ACCOUNT WITH YOUR NAME

FOR ANY COUNTRY AT VERY NOMINAL CHARGE LIKE 3500 INR OR 60$. EVEN WE WILL GUIDE

YOU HOW TO SETUP AND USE IT FOR LONG TIME.

 

Common Mistakes people make while using adsense :-

 

1- They use adsense at copied content site.

2-They ask friends to click on their own ads.

3-Click exchanges

4-Wrong Adsense placement position at website.

5-Having multiple adsense account with same name.

6-using adsense in popup OR Iframe.

 

Conditions to get  adsense approval with DLL Incorporation :-

 

1- You need to pay 50% advance payment.

2-Adsense Apptoval Fee is 3600 inr or 60$

2-You need to provide full details for adsense approval like name , address , country and phone number.

3-We will show you your approved adsense account via team viewer then you can pay remaining 50% fee.

4-We will provide you login password of your adsense account.

 

IF YOU ARE SERIOUS TO GET GOOGLE ADSENSE APPROVAL THEN YOU CAN CALL US

AT +91-8586875020 OR YOU CAN EMAIL US AT CEO@SPEAKMEME.COM SKYPE ID : SPEAKMEME

OR VISIT www.speakmeme.com demo site is ibibo.pw

Try 10 Battle Tested Forex Trading Strategies and More for Only $1

Dear Forex brown   I would like to invite you to try our Top 10 Favorite Battle Tested Forex Trading Strategies and more for only $1.   Get Me Started Now >>    These 10 Trading Strategies are available in video format with Trading Rules and examples:   Strategy #1 - Double Bollinger Bands Strategy #2 - RSI Flow Strategy #3 - X-Treme Fade Strategy #4 - Run for the 00s Strategy #5 - The Momo Trade Strategy #6- London Fade Strategy #7 -. Double E Strategy #8 - RSI Rollercoaster Strategy #9 - Perfect Order Strategy #10 - CCI - Do the Right Thing   Get Started Now >>    In addition you will get to sample all of the invaluable resources that we provide Every Day through BKForex Lite, including:   Over 100 Trend & Reversal Alerts per month Daily NY and Asia Market Open Videos Live Webinars with Kathy / Boris Every Day Daily Calls on News Events Hot Chart of the Day Institutional Quality Market Commentary Get Started Now >>     Happy Trading, Kathy Lien and Boris Schlossberg BKForex LLC 233 W 77th St Suite 11G New York NY 10024 contact@bkforex.com Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

This email was sent to forexhudi.euro@blogger.com by contact@bkforex.com |   Update Profile/Email Address | Instant removal with SafeUnsubscribe™ | Privacy Policy. BKForex Advisor | The Desks of Boris Schlossberg and Kathy Lien | NY | NY | 10280

Why You Should Manage Winners

BK Forex Trading Signals BK Club Forex Trading Education www.bkforex.com Boris' Weekly Trading Newsletter Traders First and Analysts Second Blood, Sweat & Pips - Here are our thoughts on Trading  Thoughts on Trading  Why You Should Manage Winners      A few weeks ago I made an offhand comment in one of my columns that managing losers is useless and that as traders we should only focus on managing winners. This elicited wails of protest from some of my readers who wanted to know how I could possibly make such a heretical claim!   So let me explain exactly what I mean.   Every trade we make is either a win or a loss. That sounds ridiculously obvious but I don't think any of us psychologically accept that fact. Most of us place a trade and assume that it is going to be a win. After all, why trade, if you aren't going to win?   I think most us have a very hard time accepting the reality of risk. As the great Mike Tyson once said,"Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face."   So instead of accepting our losses what do we do? We do everything in our power to make them go away. We average in. We add money to the account in order to avoid a margin call. We leave the trade on the books and turn a day scalp into multi month investment. Most of the time these tactics fail miserably and we pretty much lose all our money.The few times they work they simply build the foundation for a much larger loss down the road.   So the simple rule for managing your losses is -- don't. It you trade small and you trade often each loss should be miniscule relative to your account size. I generally keep my losses to 20 basis points of equity and never more than 100 basis points. I am always astounded at how such a simple change in my behavior has resulted in much better performance in my trading. You can make a lot of money if you don't lose much.   On the other hand winners are a whole different ball game. Someone once told me that almost 80% of all trades are profitable sometime during the lifecycle of the trade. Like all market statistics this one is probably not quite true, as financial prices are notoriously difficult to drop into a standard distribution. ( We don't have 50 foot 5 ton human beings, but we have plenty of trading days that would fit that profile). In any case I think we know from our own day to day experience that many of our positions were profitable sometime during the lifecycle of the trade. That's why aggressively managing winners is vitally important. Say you make a trade with 20 point stop and 20 point target. It goes +19 in your direction and then turns and stops you out. How much did you lose? -20? NO! You lost -39 because that is the amount of points you would need to replace in order to bring your account back to that value.   Kathy and I have traded together for a long time now making money in four out of five years. That must be one of the longest retail forex track records out there. Like everyone else we have struggled with trade selection, with market volatility, with bad fills and with a million other problems that befall anyone who trades FX -we have always focused on managing our winners -- and I believe that more than anything else this one tactic has been the key to our success.   I know that conventional wisdom tells you to let your winners run. I know that all the backtests show that selling some of your position early and going to breakeven is an inferior strategy than holding on to you ultimate profit target. I know all those things and they are a perfect example of being an academic truth and a lie in reality. How can I be so sure? Well next time you put on a "classic" swing trade with a 500 pip stop and a 1000 pip target and watch the move go +800 in the money and then turn to stop you out -- you tell me who is right.       Forex Weekly Techs Where Are The Trades? 05.12-5.16.2014        Sincerely,   Boris Schlossberg and Kathy Lien BKForex.com Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Forward this email This email was sent to forexhudi.euro@blogger.com by contact@bkforex.com |   Update Profile/Email Address | Instant removal with SafeUnsubscribe™ | Privacy Policy. BKForex Advisor | The Desks of Boris Schlossberg and Kathy Lien | NY | NY | 10280

BKForex Lite - Get 100 Trend & Reversal Ideas Each Month for $1

Dear Forex brown   I am very excited to share 3 exciting pieces of news with you:   #1 Kathy and I just introduced a new service called BKForex Lite that gives you access to many of the products we offer to our BKForex Premium Signal subscribers for 1/4 of the price.   #2 I just put the finishing touches on a trading algorithm that generates over 100 Trend and Reversal Trading Ideas each month   #3 You can try BKForex Lite for 1 week for only $1 - this gives you immediate access to our Trading Dashboard.    Watch the Video Now   So for only $47 a month, you will also have access to:        10 Exclusive Forex Trading Strategies      Over 100 Trend & Reversal Alerts per month      Daily NY and Asia Market Open Videos      Live Webinars with Kathy / Boris Every Day      Daily Calls on News Events      Hot Chart of the Day      Institutional Quality Market Commentary  I want to try BKForex Lite for $1        Happy Trading, Kathy Lien and Boris Schlossberg BKForex LLC 233 W 77th St Suite 11G New York NY 10024 contact@bkforex.com Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

This email was sent to forexhudi.euro@blogger.com by contact@bkforex.com |   Update Profile/Email Address | Instant removal with SafeUnsubscribe™ | Privacy Policy. BKForex Advisor | The Desks of Boris Schlossberg and Kathy Lien | NY | NY | 10280